Monday, August 09, 2004
Current electoral vote count: based on state polling data published at realclearpolitics.com (linked on the right), I calculate that John Kerry would win 296-242 if the election were held today. Bush would win all the states he won in 2000 except FL, WV and NH, giving Kerry the win.
Interestingly, if the above scenario were to hold, but Bush would win FL instead of Kerry, there would be a 269-269 tie, and the election would be thrown to the House of Representatives. Barring a massive change in the composition of the House (voting for President is done by delegation in the House, not by individual votes), Bush would win.
How ironic would it be if Bush were to win his first term after protracted litigation, and his second term on a vote of the House of Representatives? It would drive the Left absolutely nuts!
Update: The folks over at election projection also predict a current lead of 296-242 for Kerry, but using a lot more silly charts and numbers. Though this may seem like bad news for Bush, as I said above, all he has to do is win FL back and the election is his. Furthermore, he still gets to give his acceptance speech at the RNC convention and he will surely get at least a small bounce from that, which could give him WV and maybe NH or WI into his column as well.
Interestingly, if the above scenario were to hold, but Bush would win FL instead of Kerry, there would be a 269-269 tie, and the election would be thrown to the House of Representatives. Barring a massive change in the composition of the House (voting for President is done by delegation in the House, not by individual votes), Bush would win.
How ironic would it be if Bush were to win his first term after protracted litigation, and his second term on a vote of the House of Representatives? It would drive the Left absolutely nuts!
Update: The folks over at election projection also predict a current lead of 296-242 for Kerry, but using a lot more silly charts and numbers. Though this may seem like bad news for Bush, as I said above, all he has to do is win FL back and the election is his. Furthermore, he still gets to give his acceptance speech at the RNC convention and he will surely get at least a small bounce from that, which could give him WV and maybe NH or WI into his column as well.
Comments:
Take it from one in the "Live Free or Die" state. NH is NOT in the bag for the "new" JFK.
Many in Southern NH (where I live) know Kerry all too well...and left Massachusetts in part because of his extreme liberal policies.
New Hampshirites love to surprise and I predict, from my informal "bumpersticker" analysis, that NH is going for BUSH!
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Many in Southern NH (where I live) know Kerry all too well...and left Massachusetts in part because of his extreme liberal policies.
New Hampshirites love to surprise and I predict, from my informal "bumpersticker" analysis, that NH is going for BUSH!
