Friday, August 27, 2004
Election Update: If the election were held today, based on current polling, President Bush would win by an electoral count of 274-264. A few weeks ago, Senator Kerry would have won 296-242, but he has had a bad few weeks in the campaign. Bush would now pick up Florida and West Virginia and win the presidency.
All the major national polls are also moving in the direction of President Bush, and the latest state polls in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania show Bush with a 1-point lead in each state. I did not include these states for him yet and I will not until two or three different polls show him ahead.
With the Republican National Convention next week, President Bush could increase his lead considerably and move over 300 electoral votes. States like WI, IA, PA, MI, NM, NH and ME are currently vulnerable for the Kerry campaign.
Update: Three of the last four polls in WI show Bush with a slight lead, so I am giving that state to Bush. The electoral count is now 284-254.
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All the major national polls are also moving in the direction of President Bush, and the latest state polls in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania show Bush with a 1-point lead in each state. I did not include these states for him yet and I will not until two or three different polls show him ahead.
With the Republican National Convention next week, President Bush could increase his lead considerably and move over 300 electoral votes. States like WI, IA, PA, MI, NM, NH and ME are currently vulnerable for the Kerry campaign.
Update: Three of the last four polls in WI show Bush with a slight lead, so I am giving that state to Bush. The electoral count is now 284-254.
Friday, August 20, 2004
John Kerry's Mind: Turns out that John Kerry thought we should bring some of our troops home from Europe and North Korea a few weeks ago, but once President Bush proposed the idea Kerry opposed it. Kerry is starting to make Al Gore appear honest and sane.
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Tuesday, August 10, 2004
Fascinating Senate Race: With Alan Keyes entering the US Senate race in Illinois to challenge Democrat Barack Obama, this race becomes very interesting. I have always been an admirer of Alan Keyes. He brings a philosophical and theological approach to politics that I appreciate. Read this article and you will see that, agree or disagree, Keyes is having the right debate about the issues.
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Monday, August 09, 2004
Current electoral vote count: based on state polling data published at realclearpolitics.com (linked on the right), I calculate that John Kerry would win 296-242 if the election were held today. Bush would win all the states he won in 2000 except FL, WV and NH, giving Kerry the win.
Interestingly, if the above scenario were to hold, but Bush would win FL instead of Kerry, there would be a 269-269 tie, and the election would be thrown to the House of Representatives. Barring a massive change in the composition of the House (voting for President is done by delegation in the House, not by individual votes), Bush would win.
How ironic would it be if Bush were to win his first term after protracted litigation, and his second term on a vote of the House of Representatives? It would drive the Left absolutely nuts!
Update: The folks over at election projection also predict a current lead of 296-242 for Kerry, but using a lot more silly charts and numbers. Though this may seem like bad news for Bush, as I said above, all he has to do is win FL back and the election is his. Furthermore, he still gets to give his acceptance speech at the RNC convention and he will surely get at least a small bounce from that, which could give him WV and maybe NH or WI into his column as well.
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Interestingly, if the above scenario were to hold, but Bush would win FL instead of Kerry, there would be a 269-269 tie, and the election would be thrown to the House of Representatives. Barring a massive change in the composition of the House (voting for President is done by delegation in the House, not by individual votes), Bush would win.
How ironic would it be if Bush were to win his first term after protracted litigation, and his second term on a vote of the House of Representatives? It would drive the Left absolutely nuts!
Update: The folks over at election projection also predict a current lead of 296-242 for Kerry, but using a lot more silly charts and numbers. Though this may seem like bad news for Bush, as I said above, all he has to do is win FL back and the election is his. Furthermore, he still gets to give his acceptance speech at the RNC convention and he will surely get at least a small bounce from that, which could give him WV and maybe NH or WI into his column as well.
